@article{6ed45c70e2914aed8e22d72727845948,
title = "Toward predicting changes in the land monsoon rainfall a decade in advance",
abstract = "Predictions of changes of the land monsoon rainfall (LMR) in the coming decades are of vital importance for successful sustainable economic development. Current dynamic models, though, have shown little skill in the decadal prediction of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) LMR (NHLMR). The physical basis and predictability for such predictions remain largely unexplored. Decadal change of the NHLMR reflects changes in the total NH continental precipitation, tropical general circulation, and regional land monsoon rainfall over northern Africa, India, East Asia, and North America. Using observations from 1901 to 2014 and numerical experiments, it is shown that the decadal variability of the NHLMR is rooted primarily in (i) the north-south hemispheric thermal contrast in the Atlantic-Indian Ocean sector measured by the North Atlantic-south Indian Ocean dipole (NAID) sea surface temperature (SST) index and (ii) an east-west thermal contrast in the Pacific measured by an extended El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation (XEN) index. Results from a 500-yr preindustrial control experiment demonstrate that the leading mode of decadal NHLMR and the associated NAID and XEN SST anomalies may be largely an internal mode of Earth's climate system, although possibly modified by natural and anthropogenic external forcing. A 51-yr, independent forward-rolling decadal hindcast was made with a hybrid dynamic conceptual model and using the NAID index predicted by a multiclimate model ensemble. The results demonstrate that the decadal changes in the NHLMR can be predicted approximately a decade in advance with significant skills, opening a promising way forward for decadal predictions of regional land monsoon rainfall worldwide.",
keywords = "Atmosphere-ocean interaction, Climate prediction, Decadal variability, Monsoons",
author = "Bin Wang and Juan Li and Cane, {Mark A.} and Jian Liu and Webster, {Peter J.} and Baoqiang Xiang and Kim, {Hye Mi} and Jian Cao and Ha, {Kyung Ja}",
note = "Funding Information: This study is jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41420104002; J. Liu and B. W.), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2016YFA0600401; J. Liu and B. W.), the Global Research Laboratory (GRL) Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea (Grant 2011-0021927; B. W. and K. H.), National Science Foundation Award 1638256 (P. W.), KMA R&D Program under Grant KMIPA2016-6010 (H.K.), andNOAA's Climate Program Office, Climate Variability, and Predictability Program (GC14-252; B. X.) and IBS-R028-D1 (K. H.). This is publication 10293 of the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, publication 1303 of the International Pacific Research Center, and publication 201 of the Earth System Modeling Center Funding Information: Acknowledgments. This study is jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41420104002; J. Liu and B. W.), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2016YFA0600401; J. Liu and B. W.), the Global Research Laboratory (GRL) Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea (Grant 2011-0021927; B. W. and K. H.), National Science Foundation Award 1638256 (P. W.), KMA R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2016-6010 (H. K.), and NOAA{\textquoteright}s Climate Program Office, Climate Variability, and Predictability Program (GC14-252; B. X.) and IBS-R028-D1 (K. H.). This is publication 10293 of the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, publication 1303 of the International Pacific Research Center, and publication 201 of the Earth System Modeling Center. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018 American Meteorological Society.",
year = "2018",
month = apr,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0521.1",
language = "English",
volume = "31",
pages = "2699--2714",
journal = "Journal of Climate",
issn = "0894-8755",
publisher = "American Meteorological Society",
number = "7",
}