TY - JOUR
T1 - The Prediction of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia in Very Low Birth Weight Infants through Clinical Indicators within 1 Hour of Delivery
AU - Shim, So Yeon
AU - Yun, Ji Yun
AU - Cho, Su Jin
AU - Kim, Min Ho
AU - Park, Eun Ae
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was supported by funds by Research of Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2019ER710301).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Background: Despite the advances in neonatology, the incidence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is increasing. It is important to prevent the development of BPD in the first place. The online BPD outcome estimator from National Institute of Children Health and Human Development and Neonatal Research Network is available. However, it is not applicable for Asians. Moreover, limits are set for birth weight and gestational weeks excluding those who may still have BPD. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for BPD using first hour perinatal and neonatal factors in Korean very low birth weight infants (VLBWIs). Methods: Data were collected for 8,022 VLBWIs with gestational age (GA) ≥ 22 weeks who were born between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2016, and admitted to the neonatal intensive care units of the KNN. Multiple logistic regression models reanalyzed by stepwise selection with significant clinical indicators for BPD. PROC package was used to calculate the area under curve (AUC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Moreover, it was used to search the best cut-off value. External validation was performed with the 2017 Korean neonatal network (KNN) data. Results: After all missing data were excluded, 4,600 VLBWIs were included in the training dataset of the prediction model. Predictability of presence of BPD was 90.8% and prediction P value cut off was 0.550. Five-minute Apgar score, birth weight, GA, sex, surfactant use were significant indicators. Predictability of severe BPD was 81.5% and prediction P value cut off was 0.160. Five-minute Apgar score, birth weight, maternal PIH, chronic maternal hypertension, GA, sex, respiratory distress syndrome, need of resuscitation at birth were significant indicators. After external validation, sensitivity and specificity did not change significantly. Conclusion: From this study, high predictability was obtained using clinical parameters obtained within one hour of life. P value for prediction of each grade of BPD and equation for calculation was presented. It can be helpful for the early prediction of BPD in Korean VLBWI. This study will contribute to the prediction of BPD in Asians especially Korean VLBWIs, not currently included in the NICHD BPD online BPD predictor. In addition, the predictive power may be continuously increased with the cumulative data of KNN.
AB - Background: Despite the advances in neonatology, the incidence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is increasing. It is important to prevent the development of BPD in the first place. The online BPD outcome estimator from National Institute of Children Health and Human Development and Neonatal Research Network is available. However, it is not applicable for Asians. Moreover, limits are set for birth weight and gestational weeks excluding those who may still have BPD. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for BPD using first hour perinatal and neonatal factors in Korean very low birth weight infants (VLBWIs). Methods: Data were collected for 8,022 VLBWIs with gestational age (GA) ≥ 22 weeks who were born between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2016, and admitted to the neonatal intensive care units of the KNN. Multiple logistic regression models reanalyzed by stepwise selection with significant clinical indicators for BPD. PROC package was used to calculate the area under curve (AUC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Moreover, it was used to search the best cut-off value. External validation was performed with the 2017 Korean neonatal network (KNN) data. Results: After all missing data were excluded, 4,600 VLBWIs were included in the training dataset of the prediction model. Predictability of presence of BPD was 90.8% and prediction P value cut off was 0.550. Five-minute Apgar score, birth weight, GA, sex, surfactant use were significant indicators. Predictability of severe BPD was 81.5% and prediction P value cut off was 0.160. Five-minute Apgar score, birth weight, maternal PIH, chronic maternal hypertension, GA, sex, respiratory distress syndrome, need of resuscitation at birth were significant indicators. After external validation, sensitivity and specificity did not change significantly. Conclusion: From this study, high predictability was obtained using clinical parameters obtained within one hour of life. P value for prediction of each grade of BPD and equation for calculation was presented. It can be helpful for the early prediction of BPD in Korean VLBWI. This study will contribute to the prediction of BPD in Asians especially Korean VLBWIs, not currently included in the NICHD BPD online BPD predictor. In addition, the predictive power may be continuously increased with the cumulative data of KNN.
KW - Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia
KW - Prediction
KW - Very Low Birth Weight Infants
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103124204&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3346/jkms.2021.36.e81
DO - 10.3346/jkms.2021.36.e81
M3 - Article
C2 - 33754511
AN - SCOPUS:85103124204
VL - 36
SP - 1
EP - 12
JO - Journal of Korean Medical Science
JF - Journal of Korean Medical Science
SN - 1011-8934
IS - 11
ER -