The impacts of climate change on local hydrology and low flow frequency in the Geum River Basin, Korea

Jae H. Ryu, Joo Heon Lee, Sangman Jeong, Seon K. Park, Kyuha Han

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34 Scopus citations

Abstract

The climate sensitive analysis of potential climate change on streamflow has been conducted using a hydrologic model to identify hydrologic variability associated with climate scenarios as a function of perturbed climatic variables (e.g. carbon dioxide, temperature, and precipitation). The interannual variation of water resources availability as well as low flow frequency driven by monsoonal time shifts have been investigated to evaluate the likelihood of droughts in a changing climate. The results show that the timing shift of the monsoon window associated with future climate scenarios clearly affect annual water yield change of - 12 and - 8% corresponding to 1-month earlier and 1-month later monsoon windows, respectively. Also, a more severe low flow condition has been predicted at 0·03 m3/s as opposed to the historic 7Q10 flow of 1·54 m3/s given at extreme climate scenarios.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3437-3447
Number of pages11
JournalHydrological Processes
Volume25
Issue number22
DOIs
StatePublished - 30 Oct 2011

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Frequency analysis
  • Hydrologic model
  • Low flow
  • SWAT
  • Water resources management

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