@article{217b4fcb6a1e46008ed8e76e5b081c94,
title = "Subseasonal forecasts provide a powerful tool for dynamic marine mammal management",
abstract = "Adaptive approaches are needed to effectively manage dynamic marine systems, and ecological forecasts can help managers anticipate when and where conservation issues are likely to arise in the future. The recent development of subseasonal global environmental forecasts provides an opportunity to inform management by forecasting species distributions in advance over operational timeframes. We demonstrate the utility of environmental forecasts for managing marine mammals by integrating species distribution models with subseasonal forecasts to predict the arrival of migratory humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) at foraging grounds in the Northeast US. Environmental forecasts showed high model skill at lead times of up to 2 weeks and resulting humpback whale models performed well in predicting humpback arrival. Forecasts of whale distribution can shape management efforts to minimize both impacts on whales and economic costs. Applying subseasonal forecasts to anticipate future risk presents a powerful tool for the dynamic management of marine mammals. Front Ecol Environ 2022;.",
author = "Stepanuk, {Julia E.F.} and Hyemi Kim and Nye, {Janet A.} and Roberts, {Jason J.} and Halpin, {Pat N.} and Palka, {Debra L.} and Pabst, {D. Ann} and McLellan, {William A.} and Barco, {Susan G.} and Thorne, {Lesley H.}",
note = "Funding Information: We gratefully acknowledge the marine mammal observers involved in data collection, and the agencies that support the SubX system. We thank the climate modeling groups (Environment Canada, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration [NASA], the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Centers for Environmental Prediction [NOAA/NCEP], the US Naval Research Laboratory [NRL], and the University of Miami) for producing and making available their model outputs. NOAA/Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program, the Office of Naval Research, NASA, and NOAA/National Weather Service jointly provided coordinating support and led development of the SubX system. Funding for this research was provided by an award from the MAPP program of the NOAA Climate Office (award number 78874) to LHT, JAN, and HK. Funding Information: We gratefully acknowledge the marine mammal observers involved in data collection, and the agencies that support the SubX system. We thank the climate modeling groups (Environment Canada, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration [NASA], the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Centers for Environmental Prediction [NOAA/NCEP], the US Naval Research Laboratory [NRL], and the University of Miami) for producing and making available their model outputs. NOAA/Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program, the Office of Naval Research, NASA, and NOAA/National Weather Service jointly provided coordinating support and led development of the SubX system. Funding for this research was provided by an award from the MAPP program of the NOAA Climate Office (award number 78874) to LHT, JAN, and HK. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.",
year = "2023",
month = apr,
doi = "10.1002/fee.2506",
language = "English",
volume = "21",
pages = "117--123",
journal = "Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment",
issn = "1540-9295",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "3",
}
