Spontaneous evolution in bilirubin levels predicts liver-related mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis

The accurate prognostic stratification of alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is essential for individualized therapeutic decisions. The aim of this study was to develop a new prognostic model to predict liver-related mortality in Asian AH patients. We conducted a hospital-based, retrospective cohort study using 308 patients with AH between 1999 and 2011 (a derivation cohort) and 106 patients with AH between 2005 and 2012 (a validation cohort). The Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to select significant predictors of liver-related death from the derivation cohort. A new prognostic model was internally validated using a bootstrap sampling method. The discriminative performance of this new model was compared with those of other prognostic models using a concordance index in the validation cohort. Bilirubin, prothrombin time, creatinine, potassium at admission, and a spontaneous change in bilirubin levels from day 0 to day 7 (SCBL) were incorporated into a model for AH to grade the severity in an Asian patient cohort (MAGIC). For risk stratification, four risk groups were identified with cutoff scores of 29, 37, and 46 based on the different survival probabilities (P<0.001). In addition, MAGIC showed better discriminative performance for liver-related mortality than any other scoring system in the validation cohort. MAGIC can accurately predict liver-related mortality in Asian patients hospitalized for AH. Therefore, SCBL may help us decide whether patients with AH urgently require corticosteroid treatment.