Recent progress on the seasonal tropical cyclone predictions over the western North Pacific from 2014 to 2020

Eun Jeong Cha, Se Hwan Yang, Yu Sun Hyun, Chang Hoi Ho, Il Ju Moon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

This study summarized the procedure for the seasonal predictions of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP), which is currently operating at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Republic of Korea. The methodology was briefly described, and its prediction accuracy was verified. Seasonal predictions were produced by synthesizing spatiotemporal evolutions of various climate factors such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), monsoon activity, and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), using four models: a statistical, a dynamical, and two statistical–dynamical models. The KMA forecaster predicted the number of TCs over the WNP based on the results of the four models and season to season climate variations. The seasonal prediction of TCs is announced through the press twice a year, for the summer on May and fall on August. The present results showed low accuracy during the period 2014–2020. To advance forecast skill, a set of recommendations are suggested.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)26-35
Number of pages10
JournalTropical Cyclone Research and Review
Volume11
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2022

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration

Keywords

  • Dynamical model
  • Forecast error and verification
  • Seasonal prediction
  • Statistical model
  • Statistical–dynamical model
  • Tropical cyclones
  • Western north pacific

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