TY - JOUR
T1 - Probabilistic modeling of wind energy potential for power grid expansion planning
AU - Kim, Gyeongmin
AU - Hur, Jin
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by the Korea Electric Power Corporation (No. R21XO01-1 ) and this research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education ( 2018R1A6A1A08025520 ).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2021/9/1
Y1 - 2021/9/1
N2 - The increasing integration of wind energy generation into energy systems has led to difficulties in power flow calculations due to uncertainty and variability, which significantly affect the stability and reliability of power grids. Consequently, it is critical to evaluate the energy security limit of power grids based on probabilistic approaches. In this paper, we propose the probabilistic modeling of wind energy potential for power grid expansion planning. The proposed probabilistic model estimates wind energy potential through Weibull distribution, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), and the enhanced spatial modeling based on universal kriging. It can be used to establish the expansion plan for transmission and distribution facilities to resolve the variability and uncertainty issues of wind generation resources, which is expected to increase the penetration levels of renewable energy. To validate the proposed model, the empirical data from the Jeju Island's wind farms are considered in South Korea.
AB - The increasing integration of wind energy generation into energy systems has led to difficulties in power flow calculations due to uncertainty and variability, which significantly affect the stability and reliability of power grids. Consequently, it is critical to evaluate the energy security limit of power grids based on probabilistic approaches. In this paper, we propose the probabilistic modeling of wind energy potential for power grid expansion planning. The proposed probabilistic model estimates wind energy potential through Weibull distribution, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), and the enhanced spatial modeling based on universal kriging. It can be used to establish the expansion plan for transmission and distribution facilities to resolve the variability and uncertainty issues of wind generation resources, which is expected to increase the penetration levels of renewable energy. To validate the proposed model, the empirical data from the Jeju Island's wind farms are considered in South Korea.
KW - Capacity factor
KW - Grid expansion planning
KW - Monte Carlo simulation
KW - Probabilistic model
KW - Weibull distribution
KW - Wind energy potential
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85105587620&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.energy.2021.120831
DO - 10.1016/j.energy.2021.120831
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85105587620
VL - 230
JO - Energy
JF - Energy
SN - 0360-5442
M1 - 120831
ER -