Prediction of plant phenological shift under climate change in south korea

Ha Kyung Lee, So Jeong Lee, Min Kyung Kim, Sang Don Lee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

14 Scopus citations


Information on the phenological shift of plants can be used to detect climate change and predict changes in the ecosystem. In this study, the changes in first flowering dates (FFDs) of the plum tree (Prunus mume), Korean forsythia (Forsythia koreana), Korean rosebay (Rhododendron mucronulatum), cherry tree (Prunus yedoensis), and peach tree (Prunus persica) in Korea during 1920–2019 were investigated. In addition, the changes in the climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) and their relationship with the FFDs were analyzed. The changes in the temperature and precipitation during the January–February–March period and the phenological shifts of all research species during 1920–2019 indicate that warm and dry spring weather advances the FFDs. Moreover, the temperature has a greater impact on this phenological shift than precipitation. Earlier flowering species are more likely to advance their FFDs than later flowering species. Hence, the temporal asynchrony among plant species will become worse with climate change. In addition, the FFDs in 2100 were predicted based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The difference between the predicted FFDs of the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 for 2100 was significant; the effectiveness of greenhouse gas policies will presumably determine the degree of the plant phenological shift in the future. Furthermore, we presented the predicted FFDs for 2100.

Original languageEnglish
Article number9276
Pages (from-to)1-14
Number of pages14
JournalSustainability (Switzerland)
Issue number21
StatePublished - 1 Nov 2020

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© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland


  • Asynchrony
  • Climate change
  • First flowering date
  • Plant phenology
  • RCP scenario
  • Temperature


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