Near-future prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the North Atlantic

Prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity is essential to better prepare for and mitigate TC-induced disasters. Although many studies have attempted to predict TC activity on various time scales, very few have focused on near-future predictions. Here a decrease in seasonal TC activity over the North Atlantic (NA) for 2016-30 is shown using a track-pattern-based TC prediction model. The TC model is forced by long-term coupled simulations initialized using reanalysis data. Unfavorable conditions for TC development including strengthened vertical wind shear, enhanced low-level anticyclonic flow, and cooled sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical NA are found in the simulations. Most of the environmental changes are attributable to cooling of the NA basinwide SST (NASST) and more frequent El Niño episodes in the near future. The consistent NASST warming trend in the projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggests that natural variability is more dominant than anthropogenic forcing over the NA in the near-future period.