MJO Influence on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction in the Northern Hemisphere Extratropics

Hera Kim, Seok Woo Son, Hyemi Kim, Kyong Hwan Seo, Min Jee Kang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Scopus citations


The impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics are examined using the reforecasts from the S2S Project and Subseasonal Experiment Project (SubX). When forecasts are initialized during an active MJO, extratropical prediction skill becomes significantly higher at 3–4-week windows compared to inactive MJO. Such prediction skill improvement is evident in the 500-hPa geopotential height over the Pacific–North America region and the North Atlantic and in surface temperature over North America, especially when the model is initialized during the MJO phases 6–7 and 8–1. However, the extratropical prediction skill is not modulated by the MJO phases 2–3 and 4–5. This phase dependency is likely determined by the arrival time of the MJO at the Maritime Continent (MC) barrier that substantially enhances the MJO amplitude error. This result suggests that only MJO phases whose convection lies east of the MC are a source of wintertime S2S predictability in the extratropics.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)7943-7956
Number of pages14
JournalJournal of Climate
Issue number22
StatePublished - 15 Nov 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 American Meteorological Society.


  • Hindcasts
  • Madden-Julian oscillation
  • Operational forecasting
  • Subseasonal variability
  • Teleconnections


Dive into the research topics of 'MJO Influence on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction in the Northern Hemisphere Extratropics'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this