Insignificant QBO-MJO Prediction Skill Relationship in the SubX and S2S Subseasonal Reforecasts

Hyemi Kim, Jadwiga H. Richter, Zane Martin

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30 Scopus citations

Abstract

The impact of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the prediction of the tropospheric Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is evaluated in reforecasts from nine models participating in subseasonal prediction projects, including the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) and Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) projects. When MJO prediction skill is analyzed for December to February, MJO prediction skill is higher in the easterly phase of the QBO than the westerly phase, consistent with previous studies. However, the relationship between QBO phase and MJO prediction skill is not statistically significant for most models. This insignificant QBO-MJO skill relationship is further confirmed by comparing two subseasonal reforecast experiments with the Community Earth System Model v1 using both a high-top (46-level) and low-top (30-level) version of the Community Atmosphere Model v5. While there are clear differences in the forecasted QBO between the two model top configurations, a negligible change is shown in the MJO prediction, indicating that the QBO in this model may not directly control the MJO prediction and supporting the insignificant QBO-MJO skill relationship found in SubX and S2S models.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)12655-12666
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Volume124
Issue number23
DOIs
StatePublished - 16 Dec 2019

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Constructive and valuable comments from three anonymous reviewers and Editor Chidong Zhang are greatly appreciated. H. K. was supported by NSF AGS-1652289, NOAA NA16OAR4310070, and the KMA R&D Program KMI2018-03110. J. R. was supported by NOAA's Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program. Portions of this study were supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research via NSF IA 1844590. Z. M. was supported by NSF AGS-1543932 and by NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program 80NSSC18K1347. This material is based upon work supported by the NCAR, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. ERA-Interim data were obtained freely from http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim_full_daily and NOAA OLR from https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.interp_OLR.html. The SubX and NCAR-CESM1 reforecasts can be downloaded from http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.SubX/ and S2S reforecasts from https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/s2s/.

Funding Information:
Constructive and valuable comments from three anonymous reviewers and Editor Chidong Zhang are greatly appreciated. H. K. was supported by NSF AGS‐1652289, NOAA NA16OAR4310070, and the KMA R&D Program KMI2018‐03110. J. R. was supported by NOAA's Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program. Portions of this study were supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research via NSF IA 1844590. Z. M. was supported by NSF AGS‐1543932 and by NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program 80NSSC18K1347. This material is based upon work supported by the NCAR, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. ERA‐Interim data were obtained freely from http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim_full_daily and NOAA OLR from https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.interp_OLR.html . The SubX and NCAR‐CESM1 reforecasts can be downloaded from http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.SubX/ and S2S reforecasts from https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/s2s/ .

Publisher Copyright:
©2019. The Authors.

Keywords

  • Madden-Julian oscillation
  • prediction
  • quasi-biennial oscillation

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