Incidence and 30-day mortality of peptic ulcer bleeding in Korea

Objectives: To estimate the rates of peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) incidence and the association of demographic factors with 30-day mortality after PUB. Methods: Diagnostic algorithms for PUB were derived and validated on the basis of 115 true PUB patients at one tertiary hospital in 2005, followed by estimation of age-specific PUB incidence and 30-day mortality rates, using the Korean National Health Insurance claim database. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine the impact of demographic factors on the 30-day mortality rate ratio (MRR) after PUB. Results: The diagnostic algorithm showed 89 and 88% positive predictive value and sensitivity, respectively. On the basis of this algorithm, the rate of PUB incidence was 22.1 per 100 000 during 2006-2007 and the age-specific incidence rate increased with advanced age. This incidence rate was more than three times higher among men than women. Among 21 107 PUB patients, the overall 30-day mortality rate was 2.15%, but it ranged from 0.83% for patients younger than 60 years to 7.65% for patients older than 80 years. The adjusted 30-day mortality rate ratio for patients older than 80 was 8.13 (95% confidence interval 6.10-10.8) compared with those younger than 60 and 7.09 (95% confidence interval 2.78-4.51) for patients with a high level of comorbidity compared with a low level of comorbidity. Conclusion: PUB incidence was higher among men and increased with advanced age. Increased 30-day mortality was observed in association with increasing age, after adjusting for comorbidity.