Evolution of adoption determinants in cross-border e-commerce: comparing AliExpress and Temu

Purpose – This study examines how adoption determinants evolve across market maturity stages in cross-border e-commerce by comparing early market (AliExpress) and mature market (Temu) adoption patterns among South Korean consumers. Design/methodology/approach – Using Bayesian ordinal regression on data from 600 respondents (300 AliExpress and 300 Temu users), this study investigates how gender, age, income and purchase intervals influence platform adoption timing across market evolution stages. Findings – Results reveal distinct adoption mechanisms across market stages. Male users adopted both platforms earlier. Middle-aged users adopted AliExpress earlier than younger and older users but showed no advantage with Temu. Purchase intervals exhibited platform-specific effects, with shorter intervals associated with earlier Temu adoption but showing no relationship with AliExpress adoption. These findings substantiate a shift from demographic-driven adoption in early markets to behavior-driven adoption in mature markets. Originality/value – This research establishes an evolutionary framework where adoption determinants shift with market maturity – from risk tolerance in early markets to platform familiarity and variety-seeking in mature markets. By examining actual adoption timing through Bayesian methodology, this study extends diffusion theory by demonstrating that adoption determinants operate dynamically across market evolution.