Effectiveness of economic sanctions against North Korea and role of China: Empirical approach

This study explores North Korea’s trade patterns and the effectiveness of economic sanctions imposed on the hermit kingdom. Using a gravity model with a panel dataset of the country’s 92 trading countries from the period of 1999 to 2014, this paper examines North Korea’s trade patterns and compares the model-based estimated bilateral trade flows with actual trade ones. Main findings are: (1) North Korea’s trade has been excessively skewed to China as a result of economic sanctions from the United Nations and international community, largely driven by the United States; (2) The U.S. - North Korea trade would not be seriously affected by the sanctions due to their low estimated trade flows; (3) The latter finding raises further questions over the effectiveness of the current sanctions and asks for active cooperation from China.