We examined whether the elasticities of Korean exports with respect to global GDP and to the exchange rate vary depending on exports’ expansionary or contractionary regimes. Our empirical analysis incorporated regime changes and cointegration into a multivariable smooth transition autoregressive vector error correction model. Our estimation results revealed asymmetries in the short-run elasticities of Korea's exports between the two regimes, although their long-run elasticities remain stable. The positive effect of global GDP on Korea's exports is inelastic during contractionary regimes but elastic in expansionary regimes. The effect of home currency appreciation is negative and elastic under expansionary regimes but positive and inelastic under contractionary regimes.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
Kim: Department of Economics, Ewha Womans University, 52, Ewhayeodae‐gil, Seodaemun‐gu, Seoul 03760, Republic of Korea. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org . Choi (corresponding author): Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, 55, Namdaemun‐ro, Jung‐gu, Seoul 04532, Republic of Korea. Email: email@example.com . The authors are grateful to Wook Sohn, Jaerang Lee, Hyunjoo Ryou, Bok Keun Yu, SaangJoon Baak, Ji Hyun Eum, anonymous referees and seminar participants at the Bank of Korea for their helpful comments. The first author is also grateful for financial support from the Bank of Korea. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Korea. The first author acknowledges that this work was supported by the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF‐2019S1A5A2A01041891).
© 2021 East Asian Economic Association and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd
- exchange rate
- global GDP
- regime change
- smooth transition autoregressive model