TY - JOUR
T1 - Different characteristics of cold day and cold surge frequency over East Asia in a global warming situation
AU - Park, Tae Won
AU - Ho, Chang Hoi
AU - Jeong, Su Jong
AU - Choi, Yong Sang
AU - Park, Seon Ki
AU - Song, Chang Keun
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - This study investigates the changes in winter cold extreme events over East Asia in the present and future climates. Two distinct terms to indicate cold extreme events are analyzed: "cold day," which describes a temperature below a certain threshold value (e.g., simply cold weather), and "cold surge," which describes an abrupt temperature drop (e.g., relatively colder weather than a previous day). We analyze both observations and long-term climate simulations from 13 atmospheric and oceanic coupled global climate models (CGCMs). The geographical distribution of sea level pressure corresponding to a cold day (cold surge) is represented by a dipole (wave train) feature. Although cold day and cold surge show similar patterns of surface air temperature, they are induced by the out-of-phase sea level pressures. From the results of our analysis of a series of future projections for the mid and late twenty-first century using the 13 CGCMs, cold day occurrences clearly decrease with an increasing mean temperature (a correlation coefficient of -0.49), but the correlation between cold surge occurrences and the mean temperature is insignificant (a correlation coefficient of 0.08), which is supported by the same results in recent observation periods (1980-2006). Thus, it is anticipated that cold surge occurrences will remain frequent even in future warmer climate. This deduction is based on the future projections in which the change in the day-to-day temperature variability is insignificant, although the mean temperature shows significant increase. The present results suggest that living things in the future, having acclimatized to a warmer climate, would suffer the strong impact of cold surges, and hence the issue of vulnerability to cold surges should be treated seriously in the future.
AB - This study investigates the changes in winter cold extreme events over East Asia in the present and future climates. Two distinct terms to indicate cold extreme events are analyzed: "cold day," which describes a temperature below a certain threshold value (e.g., simply cold weather), and "cold surge," which describes an abrupt temperature drop (e.g., relatively colder weather than a previous day). We analyze both observations and long-term climate simulations from 13 atmospheric and oceanic coupled global climate models (CGCMs). The geographical distribution of sea level pressure corresponding to a cold day (cold surge) is represented by a dipole (wave train) feature. Although cold day and cold surge show similar patterns of surface air temperature, they are induced by the out-of-phase sea level pressures. From the results of our analysis of a series of future projections for the mid and late twenty-first century using the 13 CGCMs, cold day occurrences clearly decrease with an increasing mean temperature (a correlation coefficient of -0.49), but the correlation between cold surge occurrences and the mean temperature is insignificant (a correlation coefficient of 0.08), which is supported by the same results in recent observation periods (1980-2006). Thus, it is anticipated that cold surge occurrences will remain frequent even in future warmer climate. This deduction is based on the future projections in which the change in the day-to-day temperature variability is insignificant, although the mean temperature shows significant increase. The present results suggest that living things in the future, having acclimatized to a warmer climate, would suffer the strong impact of cold surges, and hence the issue of vulnerability to cold surges should be treated seriously in the future.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79960090316&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1029/2010JD015369
DO - 10.1029/2010JD015369
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:79960090316
SN - 0148-0227
VL - 116
JO - Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans
JF - Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans
IS - 12
M1 - D12118
ER -