Clinical applicability of an artificial intelligence prediction algorithm for early prediction of non-persistent atrial fibrillation

Background and aims: It is difficult to document atrial fibrillation (AF) on ECG in patients with non-persistent atrial fibrillation (non-PeAF). There is limited understanding of whether an AI prediction algorithm could predict the occurrence of non-PeAF from the information of normal sinus rhythm (SR) of a 12-lead ECG. This study aimed to derive a precise predictive AI model for screening non-PeAF using SR ECG within 4 weeks. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included patients aged 18 to 99 with SR ECG on 12-lead standard ECG (10 seconds) in Ewha Womans University Medical Center for 3 years. Data were preprocessed into three window periods (which are defined with the duration from SR to non-PeAF detection) – 1 week, 2 weeks, and 4 weeks from the AF detection prospectively. For experiments, we adopted a Residual Neural Network model based on 1D-CNN proposed in a previous study. We used 7,595 SR ECGs (extracted from 215,875 ECGs) with window periods of 1 week, 2 weeks, and 4 weeks for analysis. Results: The prediction algorithm showed an AUC of 0.862 and an F1-score of 0.84 in the 1:4 matched group of a 1-week window period. For the 1:4 matched group of a 2-week window period, it showed an AUC of 0.864 and an F1-score of 0.85. Finally, for the 1:4 matched group of a 4-week window period, it showed an AUC of 0.842 and an F1-score of 0.83. Conclusion: The AI prediction algorithm showed the possibility of risk stratification for early detection of non-PeAF. Moreover, this study showed that a short window period is also sufficient to detect non-PeAF.