Changes in Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks under the background of arctic amplification

Jiabao Wang, Hye Mi Kim, Edmund K.M. Chang

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47 Scopus citations

Abstract

An interdecadal weakening in the North Atlantic storm track (NAST) and a poleward shift of the North Pacific storm track (NPST) are found during October-March for the period 1979-2015. A significant warming of surface air temperature (Ts) over northeastern North America and a La Niña-like change in the North Pacific under the background of Arctic amplification are found to be the contributors to the observed changes in the NAST and the NPST, respectively, via modulation of local baroclinicity. The interdecadal change in baroclinic energy conversion is consistent with changes in storm tracks with an energy loss from eddies to mean flow over the North Atlantic and an energy gain over the North Pacific. The analysis of simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project, although with some biases in storm-track and Ts simulations, supports the observed relationship between the NAST and Ts over northeastern North America, as well as the link between the NPST and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The near-future projections of Ts and storm tracks are characterized by a warmer planet under the influence of increasing greenhouse gases and a significant weakening of both the NAST and the NPST. The potential role of the NAST in redistributing changes in Ts over the surrounding regions is also examined. The anomalous equatorward moisture flux associated with the weakening trend of the NAST would enhance the warming over its upstream region and hinder the warming over its downstream region via modulation of the downward infrared radiation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3705-3724
Number of pages20
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume30
Issue number10
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 May 2017

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Constructive and valuable comments from three anonymous reviewers are greatly appreciated. We thank the CESM-LE Community Project for providing the model data analyzed in this study. This study is supported by the KMA R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2016-6010. EC is supported by NSF Grant AGS1261311.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 American Meteorological Society.

Keywords

  • Arctic
  • Climate variability
  • Extratropical cyclones
  • Interdecadal variability

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