Blood pressure trajectory modeling in childhood: Birth-cohort study

Background: Systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) tends to increase with age and increase in proportion to body weight and height. Recent epidemiological and longitudinal cohort studies have found that high BP in children can be progressed into hypertension (HTN) in adulthood. Therefore, the aim of this study is that we monitor and analyze the tendency of the BP trajectory in children from the age of 3 years to the age of 10 years. Method: A total of 767 subjects were gathered from Ewha Birth and Growth cohort study. We observed and analyzed the data of 65 subjects which were completely repeated measures for 6 times as 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10 years old follow-up. We collected retrospective information such as BP and anthropometric data measured for children and constructed the trajectory models of SBP and DBP in early stage of life. Results: Three distinct trajectories on SBP and DBP from 3 to 10 years old were identified. As a result of SBP, 82.7% (n = 54) of subjects experienced moderate SBP levels maintained stable levels; 13.7% (n = 9) of subjects experienced a rapid increase as the age increase; 3.6% (n = 2) of subjects experienced high SBP levels throughout follow-up as moderate grade. For DBP, 6.7% (n = 4) of subjects started with low levels and experienced generally a gradual grade; 61.7% (n = 41) of subjects started with moderate levels and experienced a steep increase at 7-years-old; 31.6% (n = 20) of subjects experienced a rapid increase on DBP levels. Conclusion: The result of study shows tendency of increase BP as the age increase. This research inspires that we verify risk group and risk factor in early stage of life with trajectory modeling for the HTN prevention in adulthood.