@article{4e33adc03922417888f824b21ac7fdd2,
title = "An artificial intelligence model to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Korean and Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B",
abstract = "Background & Aims: Several models have recently been developed to predict risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Our aims were to develop and validate an artificial intelligence-assisted prediction model of HCC risk. Methods: Using a gradient-boosting machine (GBM) algorithm, a model was developed using 6,051 patients with CHB who received entecavir or tenofovir therapy from 4 hospitals in Korea. Two external validation cohorts were independently established: Korean (5,817 patients from 14 Korean centers) and Caucasian (1,640 from 11 Western centers) PAGE-B cohorts. The primary outcome was HCC development. Results: In the derivation cohort and the 2 validation cohorts, cirrhosis was present in 26.9%–50.2% of patients at baseline. A model using 10 parameters at baseline was derived and showed good predictive performance (c-index 0.79). This model showed significantly better discrimination than previous models (PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, REACH-B, and CU-HCC) in both the Korean (c-index 0.79 vs. 0.64–0.74; all p <0.001) and Caucasian validation cohorts (c-index 0.81 vs. 0.57–0.79; all p <0.05 except modified PAGE-B, p = 0.42). A calibration plot showed a satisfactory calibration function. When the patients were grouped into 4 risk groups, the minimal-risk group (11.2% of the Korean cohort and 8.8% of the Caucasian cohort) had a less than 0.5% risk of HCC during 8 years of follow-up. Conclusions: This GBM-based model provides the best predictive power for HCC risk in Korean and Caucasian patients with CHB treated with entecavir or tenofovir. Lay summary: Risk scores have been developed to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B. We developed and validated a new risk prediction model using machine learning algorithms in 13,508 antiviral-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B. Our new model, based on 10 common baseline characteristics, demonstrated superior performance in risk stratification compared with previous risk scores. This model also identified a group of patients at minimal risk of developing HCC, who could be indicated for less intensive HCC surveillance.",
keywords = "HBV, HCC, antiviral treatment, chronic hepatitis B, deep neural networking, liver cancer",
author = "Kim, {Hwi Young} and Pietro Lampertico and Nam, {Joon Yeul} and Lee, {Hyung Chul} and Kim, {Seung Up} and Sinn, {Dong Hyun} and Seo, {Yeon Seok} and Lee, {Han Ah} and Park, {Soo Young} and Lim, {Young Suk} and Jang, {Eun Sun} and Yoon, {Eileen L.} and Kim, {Hyoung Su} and Kim, {Sung Eun} and Ahn, {Sang Bong} and Shim, {Jae Jun} and Jeong, {Soung Won} and Jung, {Yong Jin} and Sohn, {Joo Hyun} and Cho, {Yong Kyun} and Jun, {Dae Won} and Dalekos, {George N.} and Ramazan Idilman and Vana Sypsa and Thomas Berg and Maria Buti and Calleja, {Jose Luis} and John Goulis and Spilios Manolakopoulos and Janssen, {Harry L.A.} and Jang, {Myoung jin} and Lee, {Yun Bin} and Kim, {Yoon Jun} and Yoon, {Jung Hwan} and Papatheodoridis, {George V.} and Lee, {Jeong Hoon}",
note = "Funding Information: Hwi Young Kim: Nothing to declare; Pietro Lampertico: Speaking bureau/advisor for AbbVie, Eiger, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead, GlaxoSmithKline, Merck/Merck Sharp & Dohme, MYR Pharma, Roche; Joon Yeul Nam: Nothing to declare; Hyung-Chul Lee: Nothing to declare; Seung Up Kim: Receiving grants from Yuhan Pharmaceuticals, and lecture fees from Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead Science and Yuhan Pharmaceuticals; Dong Hyun Sinn: Nothing to declare; Yeon Seok Seo: Nothing to declare; Han Ah Lee: Nothing to declare; Soo Young Park: Nothing to declare; Young-Suk Lim: Advisory board member of and receives research funding from Gilead Sciences; Eun Sun Jang: Nothing to declare; Eileen L. Yoon: Nothing to declare; Hyoung Su Kim: Nothing to declare; Sung Eun Kim: Nothing to declare; Sang Bong Ahn: Nothing to declare; Jae-Jun Shim: Nothing to declare; Soung Won Jeong: Nothing to declare; Yong Jin Jung: Nothing to declare; Joo Hyun Sohn: Nothing to declare; Yong Kyun Cho: Nothing to declare; Dae Won Jun: Nothing to declare; George N. Dalekos: Advisor/lecturer for AbbVie, Bayer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead, Janssen, Novartis, Roche; grant support from Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead, Roche; Ramazan Idilman: Nothing to declare; Vana Sypsa: Advisor/lecturer for AbbVie, Gilead, Janssen; research grants from AbbVie, Gilead; Thomas Berg: Advisor/consultant/lecturer for AbbVie, Alexion, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead, GlaxoSmithKline, Janssen, Merck Sharp & Dohme/Merck, Novartis, Roche, and Vertex; Research support from AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead, Janssen, Merck Sharp & Dohme/Merck, Novartis and Roche; Maria Buti: Advisor/lecturer for AbbVie, Arbutus, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead, Glaxo Smith-Kleine, Merck, Roche, Spring Bank; Jose Luis Calleja: Advisor/lecturer for AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead, Janssen, Merck; John Goulis: advisor/lecturer for Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead, GlaxoSmithKline, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Roche; research grant from Bristol-Myers Squibb; Spilios Manolakopoulos: Advisor/lecturer for AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead, GlaxoSmithKline, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Novartis, Roche; grants from Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead; Harry LA Janssen: Consultant for and grants from AbbVie, Arbutus, Bristol Myers Squibb, Enyo, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, Medimmune, Merck, Roche, Vir Biotechnology Inc., Viroclinics; Myoung-jin Jang: Nothing to declare; Yun Bin Lee: Research grant from Samjin Pharmaceuticals and Yuhan Pharmaceuticals; Yoon Jun Kim: Research grants from Bristol-Myers Squibb, Roche, JW Creagene, Bukwang Pharmaceuticals, Handok Pharmaceuticals, Hanmi Pharmaceuticals, Yuhan Pharmaceuticals and Pharmaking, and lecture fees from Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals, Gilead Science, MSD Korea, Yuhan Pharmaceuticals, Samil Pharmaceuticals, CJ Pharmaceuticals, Bukwang Pharmaceuticals and Handok Pharmaceuticals; Jung-eHwan Yoon: Research grant from Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals, Bukwang Pharmaceuticals and Daewoong Pharmaceuticals; Jeong-Hoon Lee: Lecture fees from GreenCross Cell, Daewoong Pharmaceuticals and Gilead Korea; George V. Papatheodoridis: Advisor/lecturer for AbbVie, Dicerna, Gilead, GlaxoSmithKline, Ipsen, Janssen, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Roche, Spring Bank; research grants AbbVie, Gilead. Funding Information: This work was supported by National IT Industry Promotion Agency grant funded by the Korea Ministry of Science and ICT (No. S0252-21-1001 ). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 European Association for the Study of the Liver",
year = "2022",
month = feb,
doi = "10.1016/j.jhep.2021.09.025",
language = "English",
volume = "76",
pages = "311--318",
journal = "Journal of Hepatology",
issn = "0168-8278",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "2",
}